What happened

On 13 October 2026, multiple reports drawing on open satellite-tracking data identified continued and accelerating orbital decay for Rassvet-3 satellites No. 17 and No. 23, both launched in the second production batch on 19 July.

UNN, citing data from the SONIKS space-object monitoring system, reported that No. 17 had a minimum orbital altitude of 235.66 km and maximum of 255.75 km on 13 October. No. 23 was reported at 232.20 to 250.05 km. The same monitoring data projected possible atmospheric re-entry around 29 October for No. 23 and 1 November for No. 17 if their trajectories continue without corrective manoeuvres.

The decline is not new in itself. Militarnyi had already identified both spacecraft as anomalous on 2 October, when they remained around 255 to 260 km and were descending by roughly 1 km per day. The meaningful development is that neither spacecraft has subsequently begun sustained orbit raising and both have continued into substantially lower orbits, bringing near-term re-entry into the forecast window.

Evidence and limitations

The orbital trend is supported by several independent reports referring to publicly observable tracking data. Current Time reported on 13 October that No. 17 and No. 23 were approaching the 200 km region and continuing to lose altitude. UNN published specific SONIKS-derived orbital ranges and re-entry forecasts. Earlier tracking reported by Militarnyi establishes that the decline was already underway by 2 October and has since progressed.

The precise cause is not publicly established. The absence of sustained orbit raising is consistent with a manoeuvring or propulsion problem, but open orbital data alone cannot determine whether the spacecraft have suffered hardware failures, are operating under constraints, or could still execute corrective burns.

The projected re-entry dates are estimates rather than fixed outcomes. Atmospheric drag varies, and any successful manoeuvre could materially change the trajectory. This record therefore does not treat either satellite as already lost.

The two spacecraft should also not be taken as representative of the entire July batch. Other Rassvet satellites have continued raising or stabilising their orbits, and earlier Observatory records document spacecraft from the second batch reaching approximately 500 km.

Confidence: High that No. 17 and No. 23 remain in low, decaying orbits and had fallen below roughly 260 km by 13 October; moderate that they will re-enter on the currently forecast dates because those estimates can change.

Assessment

The continued decay of No. 17 and No. 23 is a measurable setback in the second production deployment. Their failure so far to join the higher-altitude group reduces the number of spacecraft available for constellation build-out and adds to evidence of uneven orbit-raising performance across the first two production launches.

The development does not establish a constellation-wide failure. Most importantly, it should be separated from the demonstrated communications capability of satellites already operating at higher altitudes. Rassvet can support intermittent test links with a partial constellation even while individual spacecraft fail to reach intended operational or holding orbits.

If No. 17 and No. 23 re-enter without recovery, they would provide two additional confirmed spacecraft losses from the production programme after the earlier loss of No. 4 from the March batch. Until re-entry occurs or Bureau 1440 provides technical information, that outcome remains prospective.

Why it matters

Rassvet’s deployment schedule depends not only on launch cadence but on the proportion of launched spacecraft that successfully raise and maintain their operational orbits. Losses during orbit raising increase the number of replacement satellites and launches required to reach persistent coverage.

The trajectories of No. 17 and No. 23 therefore provide a useful observable measure of constellation deployment efficiency. Whether either spacecraft recovers, re-enters, or remains temporarily in a low orbit will help distinguish isolated commissioning problems from a more persistent reliability issue in the production batches.

Sources

  • Current Time, 13 October 2026 — reporting on the continued decline of Rassvet-3 No. 17 and No. 23 and earlier orbital observations.
  • UNN, 13 October 2026 — reports SONIKS-derived orbital ranges and provisional re-entry forecasts for both spacecraft.
  • Militarnyi, 3 October 2026 — earlier orbital analysis documenting No. 17 and No. 23 at approximately 255 to 260 km and their accelerating descent as of 2 October.