Methodology

How Latitudinal handles evidence.

The Observatory is designed as a research record rather than a stream of posts. Records distinguish observation from assessment, make uncertainty explicit and preserve significant corrections over time.

Confirmed

Supported by primary documentation, direct observation or multiple strong independent sources.

High confidence

Strong evidence supports the assessment, although complete primary confirmation may not be available.

Moderate confidence

Credible reporting or partial evidence exists, but meaningful uncertainty remains.

Unverified

Recorded only where the claim may materially matter and is clearly identified as not yet established.

Record structure

What each Observatory entry should show

What happened. A concise description of the development.

Evidence. The primary and secondary sources supporting the record.

Confidence. How strongly the available evidence supports the factual assessment.

Assessment. Interpretation kept separate from the underlying event.

Why it matters. The significance for the tracker, research question or broader strategic context.

Last updated. Material corrections and later evidence are preserved rather than silently overwritten.