Retrospectively entered on 24 September 2026. The timeline date reflects when the development was reported or identified; the event date is stated below when different.

What happened

On 4 September 2026, Militarnyi published an analysis of the 16 satellites launched on 19 July. It found that 12 of the second-batch spacecraft were raising their orbits as of 3 September, 46 days after launch, and argued that early reports of a failed batch were premature. It compared the July spacecraft with the slower early ascent of some March satellites.

Evidence and limitations

The assessment uses observed orbital behaviour, which is more informative than an early altitude snapshot, but does not establish that all spacecraft will ultimately reach operational orbit. Different reports used the operator’s advertised 800 km altitude and the roughly 500 km altitude where most of the March batch settled, leading to conflicting interpretations.

Assessment

Continue tracking individual spacecraft over time. Neither low altitude after 46 days nor early orbital raising proves the ultimate success or failure of the batch.

Why it matters

Reliable deployment assessments affect estimates of launch efficiency, satellite attrition and the speed at which Rassvet could expand coverage.

Sources